June 10, 2020 Issue, Page 4 of 8

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Page 4 The Elk City News, Elk City, Oklahoma Wednesday, June 10, 2020 Point: A strong hurricane season Opinion Page “ElkCituNews forecast in context — so what? Serving Western Oklahoma since 1901 OKC mayor By Patrick J. Michaels, InsideSources.com Phil Klotzbach and his crew at Colorado State Uni- including the monstrous Ka- trina, which unleashed the scoured ship and other data to produce the record called deepest U.S. coastal inunda- HURDAT, going back to ed damage along the U.S. coastline.” So what do you do when a tion in known history, and 1851. If it’s going to miss true authority like Klotzbach showing versity are out with their first Wilma, which besides being anything in the pre-satellite issues a forecast of more prediction for the 2020 At- the last Category 3 strike un- era that ended in 1970, it’s and stronger hurricanes for lantic hurricane season and til 2017, was (and remains) going to miss storms that this season? First, you need it looks like a good year for the most intense cyclone spun harmlessly out at sea, to look at the record of his solid The Weather Channel and ever measured in the Atlan- or ones that fire up for a day April forecast model. While something other than coro- tic Basin. (Related trivia: ac- or two and dissipate. it certainly produces better navirus on the news. counting for coverage gaps, Ryan Mave, a brilliant me- results than simply assum- He’s predicting 16 named 1933 may have had the same teorologist and graphic art- ing the average from year to leadership storms this season, versus number or more storms.) ist with BAMWX.com, has the average of 12. We’ve calculated the power of hur- year, it explains about 40% So the picture emerges of the annual variability in already had two very weak that Atlantic hurricane data ricanes every year, and the ones, which is typical of is very noisy, and those with activity in the mid-20th cen- these storms. May cyclones. Indications vested (and _billion-dollar- tury looks an awful lot like That means it doesn’t ex- amid turmoil in his forecast are also for funded) interests in pushing the relatively active recent plain 60%, or more than half. an above-normal number of the horrific climate change decades (despite the lack of And, besides, it only takes major hurricanes (Category meme can choose portions of big ones hitting the United one storm to knock down 3 or higher), and there is an longer data sets to tell pretty States for so long). He’s also your beach house. Any- The Oklahoman elevated probability for a much any story (as can those analyzed the global history, one living on a hurricane- Oklahoma City’s municipal government doesn’t provide US. strike. with opposite predilections). and it simply shows no trend prone shore knows the drill: If this verifies, 2020 will For example, the Third related to the surface warm- Always keep a supply of much authority to the mayor. However, first-term Mayor be the fifth consecutive ing that began in the mid- “National Assessment” of canned or freeze-dried food David Holt’s leadership has been on display amid the fall- year with an above-normal climate change effects on 1970s and flattened out in on hand, make sure the car out from the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis. frequency. But hurricanes the United States, produced the early 21st century. has a lot of gas, and if a big are like baseball players by the U.S. Global Change With regard to the Atlan- one threatens, secure your Several cities across the country have been badly dam- (remember them?) in their Research Program and pub- tic, the go-to paper, not sur- house as best as possible and aged by rioters who set fire to some businesses, looted streakiness. Until 2017, lished in 2014, featured a prisingly, was published by get the hell out. Hurricane Harvey hit near graphic showing a strong Phil Klotzbach in 2018 in others and clashed violently with police. Oklahoma City Corpus Christi, Texas, as a increase in the power of At- the Bulletin of the Ameri- Klotzbach’s updated fore- cast that will come out in had protests turn ugly on consecutive nights last weekend, strong Category 4 storm, no lantic hurricanes from 1980 can Meteorological Society early August does explain prompting police to use tear gas and rubber bullets and, Category 3 or higher hurri- to 2009. (along with some really pres- more than half of the his- cane eye had crossed a U.S. Why didn’t they use data tigious co-authors). Called after the second night, leading Holt to institute a curfew torical variability, but it’s coastline for nearly 12 years. through 2013, which was “Continental U.S. Hurricane doubtful anyone will change (since lifted) for a small area of downtown. That's the longest major available for the report? Be- Landfall Frequency and As- their vacation plans based hurricane “drought” on re- cause it destroyed the meme. sociated Damage,” here’s The mayor, who had attended the peaceful Black Lives cord. Good records go back Storm activity fell sharply how it starts: upon it. Knowledge is great, Matter rally on May 31 in northeast Oklahoma City, had to the mid-19th century, and after 2009, back to where it “While neither U.S. land- but more important is how hoped not to need a curfew. But “then the fireworks and even before then the history was in 1980. falling hurricane frequency useful it is. is OK because it’s hard to The history they used start- nor intensity shows a sig- Patrick J. Michaels is a se- objects began flying at officers, and there was no choice,” miss a Category 3 landfall. ed in 1970. But the diligent nificant trend since 1900, nior fellow with the Compet- he said. Such support for police has been lacking with may- The year before the researchers at the National growth in coastal popula- itive Enterprise Institute and ors elsewhere. drought began, 2005, saw Hurricane Center, led by the tion and wealth have led to the CO2 Coalition. He wrote a record 27 named storms, aptly named Chris Landsea, increasing _hurricane-relat- this for InsideSources.com. Police tactics angered the leaders of the local Black Lives Matter chapter, who on June 1 called for the resignation of Chief Wade Gourley and disciplinary action against of- Counterpoint: This is the worst ficers they said had escalated the situations. The group also demanded a meeting with Holt within 24 hours to discuss their concerns. He met with them for two hours June 2; possible time for disasters both sides said it was fruitful, and pledged to continue talk- By Basav Sen, Inside- darbans, the world’s largest home or livelihood to a su- already had essential utili- ing. Sources.com mangrove forest, is devastat- perstorm, this is the worst ties disconnected, as more As summer sets in, we face ing. possible time. than 800 organizations have That was encouraging, as was June 2’s city council meet- the prospect of a particularly This cyclone is a warning We're seeing that in In- called for. This won’t elimi- ing, where race relations and police work prompted six severe hurricane season. of things to come for another dia and Bangladesh, where nate the need for cooling hours’ of discussion. The Oklahoman’s Steve Lackmeyer, And not only hurricanes. reason, too: It happened dur- the effect of the coronavirus centers, but will significant- who has written history books about the city, believes it Summer is the season for ing the global coronavirus lockdown has hit the poor- ly reduce the need. deadly heat waves, and crisis. This worsens the ef- est people very hard. In the Inthe longer term, we must was the council’s longest conversation on those topics they’re also likely to be fect in two critical ways. United States, the official build a robust public health since the turbulent late 1960s. worse because of climate First, when people are unemployment rate (which network (as other countries Following the meeting, Holt said he planned to work change. A hot summer sets evacuated from disaster is likely an undercount) is such as New Zealand have) the stage for more severe zones, they are typically at 14.7%. Already, millions with the council, city manager and others to produce a new wildfires, too. housed in emergency shel- could lose their homes be- to address pandemics effec- police de-escalation policy “as quickly as is practical.” He These disasters always ters sometimes _indefi- cause they can’t pay their tively. bring death and destruction nitely, if their homes are rents or mortgages. A hurri- Finally, it’s essential to also wants to improve the accountability of the police de- in their wake, particularly destroyed. According to cane or wildfire in this situa- address climate change. This partment’s Citizens Advisory Board. These are issues of for the most marginalized Bangladeshi climate justice tion will push many vulner- includes cutting our green- great importance to those seeking change. members of society. expert Saleemul Hug, “It is able people over the edge. house gas emissions rapidly “T will continue to include OKC Black Lives Matter and In 2017, Hurricane Maria almost impossible to main- What can we do about to prevent hurricanes, wild- caused about 3,000 deaths tain social distancing mea- these overlapping crises? fires and heat waves from other community leaders as this work proceeds,” Holt said in Puerto Rico. In 2018, sures” in these emergency In the immediate term, we becoming more severe than on social media. “ALL interested parties will have a seat at wildfires caused 100 fatali- shelters, which could spread need more physical space to they already are, while en- the table in these discussions.” ties and wiped out the entire the virus exponentially. use as emergency shelters or suring a just transition for Holt ended a long June 2 by speaking with protesters town of Paradise, Calif. And This danger obviously ap- cooling centers, so people all communities and work- who had gathered downtown that night. last year, floods devastated plies to hurricane and wild- can be sheltered without ers. It also includes adapting millions of acres of farmland fire responses in the United risking infection. our social systems and infra- “There’s a lot of pain, a lot of hurt,” he told reporters. across the Midwest. States. Any temporary shel- The hotel industry reports structure to be more able to “Tt’s easy to kind of block it out and think it’s just a small Terrible as these disasters ters are likely to be over- a room vacancy rate of al- withstand disasters, follow- were, this year could be a crowded, as experienced most 70% as of May 20. Add number of people, but it’s not. So you’ ve got to listen.” ing the lead of the most af- whole lot worse. We’re get- from past disasters shows. to the list vacant apartment He noted that Oklahoma City “didn’t get into this situa- fected communities. ting our first glimpse of what Cooling centers for econom- units and unused public We have the resources to tion in a week and it’s going to take more than a week to could happen from events ically vulnerable residents in and commercial buildings. meet each of these challeng- get out of it.” He’s right. halfway across the world. cities suffering heat waves There’s no reason govern- es with humanity and justice The initial count of fatali- could present the same chal- ments can’t use all of this One positive is that, “There’s a lot of people having some ties from Cyclone Amphan lenge. vacant space to shelter peo- _ we just need the political really uncomfortable conversations, but I think more peo- in South Asia is about 100, The second danger? The ple while maintaining social will. ple than ever before in the white community are embracing a tragic toll that proactive economic devastation these distancing. Basav Sen directs the Cli- evacuations prevented from disasters cause will occur at We also need a nationwide mate Policy Program at the those conversations even though they’re uncomfortable.” being far worse. But the loss a time of increased vulner- moratorium on electric- Institute for Policy Studies. Holt deserves credit for helping to lead them. God will- of homes and livelihoods in ability. While there’s never ity shutoffs and a mandate He wrote this for Inside- ing, these efforts will produce a better, more united city. the ecologically fragile Sun- a good time to lose one’s to reconnect those who’ve Sources.com. Have something to share? Send your editorial to [email protected]