May 27, 2020 Issue, Page 4 of 8

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Page 4 The Elk City News, Elk City, Oklahoma Wednesday, May 27, 2020 Will lockdowns really kill more “ElkCituNews people than COVID-19 itself? Serving Western Oklahoma since 1901 Why | still love By James Broughel and “stay at home” orders issuedus (Broughel) and Vander- changes in income - a poten- the post office Michael Kotrous, Tribune by state governors through- bilt’ University economist tially huge oversight when News Service out March and April. Our W. Kip Viscusi find that for costs are significant. A recent report from the analysis looks at how the approximately every $111 For example, University Well Being Trust estimates economic losses stemming million that a government of Chicago economist Lu- By John M. Crisp, Tribune News Service that about 68,000 Americans from these orders, as well as action imposes in economic igi Zingales recently argued Every few years I write a column about the United States could die as a result of the the health benefits of these costs, society can expect one that the United States should Postal Service. isolation, loneliness and un- orders, affect mortality. additional death. be willing to bear up to $65 In 2009 I just about wrote it off. That year the Postal employment induced by the The relationship between Government lockdown trillion in costs to address Service faced a $7 billion revenue shortfall, and 700 post circumstances surrounding income and mortality is orders cost hundreds of bil- COVID-19. That's about offices were slated for closure. COVID-19, a bit of a puzzle. Normal lions of dollars in lost eco- The problem wasn’t inefficiency or mismanagement. three years’ worth of GDP. The White House cited economic activity comes nomic output, potentially The previous year the post office had delivered 212 billion If a three-year lockdown statistics from the report with risks that kill tens of some $36 billion each week sounds excessive, it should: pieces of mail - 46% of the world total - with an on-time - which predicts a surge thousands of Americans that orders remain in place. delivery rate between 94 and 97 percent. of avoidable deaths from each year. For this reason, On the other hand, sparing a $65 trillion price tag trans- Still, mail volume was dropping and the Postal Service drugs, alcohol and suicide counterintuitively, mortality a million Americans from lates into roughly 590,000 appeared to be an inevitable victim of a cultural shift as - to support plans to reopen often declines during reces- death, millions more the additional expected deaths. profound and revolutionary as the one that occurred when the economy. The president sions. Some kinds of deaths costs of hospitalization and As the pandemic evolves the printing press was invented 500 years ago. has repeatedly made claims rise - like suicides - while hundreds of thousands from and leaders consider what The typewritten or handwritten letter was already deeply like “people are dying that others fall, like car accidents the costs of mechanical ven- to do next, they should re- obsolescent in 2009, and a huge proportion of correspon- way, too. You could make and occupational hazards. tilation or losses to lifetime member the importance of dence - bills, bank statements, advertising - that would the case it’s in even greater Over the longer term, income due to lasting lung incidental benefits and costs. have reached us via our mailboxes had already migrated to numbers.” however, persistent losses damage, could mean hun- Policymakers who ignore the internet. The future seemed clear, and it was unlikely While the mental and phys- to income do lead to more dreds of billions in expendi- these countervailing effects to include the U.S. Postal Service. ical health effects of isola~ deaths, not fewer. As you tures saved. do so at all of our peril. But I wrote another column in 2013 that was more opti- tion and job loss for millions might expect, the inverse On_ balance, preventing James Broughel is a se- mistic about the future of the post office. Mail volume had of Americans should not be is also true: wealthier indi- the economic devastation nior research fellow with the dropped to 175 billion pieces per year, but efficiency was neglected, it’s unlikely that viduals and countries tend to imposed by the virus itself Mercatus Center at George as high as ever. government lockdown or- have lower rates of mortal- probably means that more Mason University and an And even though few people were writing traditional ders are a greater threat to ity than poorer ones. When money is saved than is lost adjunct professor of law letters in 2013, Americans were still very, very fond of life than the disease itself. jobs or business revenues from the shutdown orders. at the Antonin Scalia Law stuff, physical objects that can be held and handled. Online In fact, our new research disappear, people have less By extension, this means the School. Michael Kotrous is shopping was burgeoning, and the stuff had to arrive at our finds that state orders aimed to spend on private risk miti- orders save additional lives a program manager for the homes by some method. Many Americans still valued the at suppressing the first wave beyond those saved from gation, such as safer family Innovation and Governance distinction between a virtual greeting card and a handwrit- of COVID-19 may save vehicles or home security just fighting the disease. ten note and signature by a real person at the bottom of program at the Mercatus Americans as much as half systems. A child’s socioeco- That’s not to say that it’s im- Center. They are co-authors an old-fashioned Valentine’s Day card. Maybe there was a trillion dollars, which in nomic status is also a strong possible for the “cure to be hope for the P.O., after all. itself, will save more lives. predictor of health and well- worse than the problem,” but of forthcoming Mercatus In 2013 I referenced an Esquire article entitled “Do We In our new Mercatus Cen- being as an adult. our analysis suggests that Center research on “The Really Want to Live Without the Post Office,” a detailed ter research, we examine the Economists have even it’s not as likely. Benefits of | Coronavirus discussion of the problems and potential of the P.O. that is benefits and costs of govern- developed tools to estimate To date, most cost-benefit Suppression: A Cost-Benefit as relevant now as it was in 2013, ment policies aimed at hope- fatalities stemming from in- analyses of social distancing Analysis of the Response In the article - readily available online - writer Jesse Li- fully gaining control over come losses. In a forthcom- measures fail to account for to the First Wave of COV- chtenstein does the best job that I’ve seen of describing the coronavirus, such as the ing academic article, one of indirect risks stemming from ID-19.” the basic dilemma of the Postal Service: Even though it does not receive taxpayer money, Congress has imposed a set of mandates, obligations and restrictions that virtually guarantee that it will operate at a deficit. While its critics To mask, or not? How public health officials created cognitive demand that the Postal Service operate more like a busi- ness, it is legally obligated to perform services at rates that no business could manage. dissonance, culture war But this is probably what I love most about the Postal Service: its capacity and obligation to provide every citizen with the means to connect with every other citizen who re- sides at any established address in the United States, from By Cynthia M. Allen, Fort improper mask use could ac- hibiting symptoms may be late people’s behavior - has midtown Manhattan to the most remote valley in Montana. Worth Star-Telegram tually spread the virus; and responsible for as much as had the outcome one might ‘And always at an affordable, egalitarian price. Everyone pays the same and gets the same excellent service. In March, when fears Dr. Anthony Fauci to con- half of new cases, there is expect: Masks have become about the dearth of medical fidently declare on 60 Min- reason to believe that in- a cultural flashpoint. They Now we are in 2020, and President Donald Trump calls grade masks for health care utes, that a mask is not “the creased mask usage might are a symbol of either inde- the post office a “joke,” largely because, he asserts, it de- professionals were dominat- perfect protection that peo- reduce the spread. pendence from or obsequi- livers packages for Amazon at a loss. He declares that he ing social media discussions, ple think that it is,” and that Researchers and academ- will not help until it quadruples what it charges Amazon. I asked my friend - a physi- unless you are sick, “right ics are pointing to coun- ousness to the government. It’s worth noting that Trump can’t stand Amazon found- cian’s assistant in a big East now, there is no reason to tries such as South Korea And it’s getting harder to er Jeff Bezos, who owns the Washington Post. Further, it Coast hospital emergency stake out a position beyond be walking around with a and Japan, where mask use appears that Trump is simply wrong about this. Politifact department _-if I should put mask.” is nearly universal and the those extremes. called his statement about the unprofitability of delivering my paltry sewing skills to But it wasn’t. outbreaks have been more There’s compelling evi- for Amazon “False,” and the Washington Post gave it four work making cloth face cov- Public health officials lat- controlled, as evidence that dence on both sides of the Pinocchios, which equals “whopper.” erings. er conceded that their initial mask culture could have debate: models that suggest Besides being wrong about his chief complaint about the “T appreciate your enthusi- guidance to the public re- similar quantifiable value in masking at 80-90% of the post office, this is what Trump doesn’t get: From the be- asm,” she replied, “but we’ ll garding masks was not mo- the U.S. population could eventually ginning the Postal Service was meant to be a service, not all end up with COVID-19 if tivated by cutting edge re- A study from Yale Uni- help eliminate the disease; a profit center. The Founders established a Postal Service we wear cloth masks.” search so much as the need versity estimates each ad- and research that indicates before they established our republic, and for most of our She directed me to a to dissuade the public from ditional cloth mask worn by how COVID-19 breaks history it has played an important, unsung role in uniting study from 2015 in which siphoning them away from the public has an economic through to the external sur- the nation. researchers tested surgical healthcare workers, which, value of at least $3,000- face of masks when infected Pandemic 2020 reminds us how much we depend on and cloth masks in clinical of course, was a legitimate $6,000. physical artifacts that arrive in our mailboxes from else- settings involving high-risk patients cough into them. need. Another very aspirational where. It reminds us also of the importance of national exposure to respiratory in- So when those officials model argues that ‘‘just 60% Both deserve consideration unity. For 245 years, the Postal Service has served as our and sound assessment from fections in Vietnam. Cloth abruptly did an about-face of people wearing masks most deeply American institution, unifying and connect- areliable arbiter. masks, they found, not only just weeks later and began that are 60% effective could, ing us around the principle that everyone is equal. But when it comes to dis- resulted in higher rates of in- encouraging the public to by itself, stop the epidemic.” We cannot allow the Postal Service to be neglected and cussions of mask policies fection than surgical masks wear homemade cloth face That would be something. destroyed by ignorance at a time when we really need it. but also showed higher rates coverings, even those made Of course, nearly every and behavior in the U.S., the John M. Crisp, an op-ed columnist for Tribune News of infection than the control from a variety of common study that promotes masks opportunity to have reason- Service, lives in Georgetown, Texas, and can be reached group (which followed stan- household items _ T-shirts, acknowledges that they must able debate seems to have at jcrispcolumns@ gmail.com. dard hospital procedures, in- bandannas, rubber bands _ be used properly to be effec- eluded us. People are dug cluding use of surgical, cloth for their safety and that of tive (fit correctly, washed in. And frankly, we have our or no masks at all), others, they had to assume frequently, removed the trusted public officials and Have something to share? It would have made sense if this type of finding was what motivated the sur- the public would suffer from right way), and emphasizes their muddled messages on cognitive dissonance or even that mask-wearing is only begin to question their cred- one strategy, not a solution masks, to thank for that. Send youreditorialto As they say on Twitter, geon general in February, to ibility. in and of itself. tweet, that masks “are NOT In fairness, understanding Unfortunately, failure to great job everyone. effective in preventing gen- of the virus is quickly evolv- clearly and honestly commu- Cynthia M. Allen is a col- [email protected] eral public from catching #Coronavirus”; Health and ing. Because doctors and sci- nicate the benefits and limi- tations of masks early on - to Human Services Secretary entists now suspect that instead use mask guidance umnist for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Readers may send her email at cmallen@ Alex Azar to suggest that veovle infected but not ex- as an opportunity to manipu- star-telegram.com.